With an interest in Warmachine and the WTC and having some ideas on how to get around a spreadsheet I figured I would give a go at getting some nice data from the WTC. Im considering doing something similar for the other factions as well so keep an eye on this place for more stats going forward.
If you have any suggestions for some type of data you want to see let me know and I will see what I can do. The data that I would like to have but that is missing is which theme was played (I could probably cross reference this with conflict chamber but have not dived into that yet), which team was choosing tables in each game and also which player went first. This data would be interesting to see the impact of these things but the theme thing is some more work to get in and the starting team/player stats are not recorded anywhere.
If you enjoy the stats below and would like to see more of it in the future it is appriciated to support me via KoFi: Ko-fi.com/johandyrlind
So on to the stats!
Curcible guard had 20 players at WTC, game 2 we only have results for 19 of them for unknown reasons. We will start with the overall winrate of Crucible guard, if we exclude mirror we have a not so impressive winrate at 40,8%. I have not yet taken a look at how this changes if we only look at higher placing teams but my quick asking around of people I know seems to indicate a pretty good winrate for about half the players and a very low winrate for the other half.
For our casters:
As you can see Syvestro has a winrate slightly over 50%, Lukas with 1 game played is at 100% while all the others are looking pretty bad. For percentages we are looking at:
- Syvestro 52.9%
- Gearhart 35.7%
- Locke 25.0%
- Mackay 18.8%
- Lukas 100.0%
Reading my previous blog post you know what I think about Syvestro, but in short I have always said he is the best caster in the faction while its hard to find a good pair for him. The stats above seem to show this pretty clearly as well. However I would say that this gets slightly exaggarated above, my own experience says that we drop Syvestro in most of cases and switch to our second caster only for very specific problem matchups. So if we look at it as if the non syvestro casters are mainly played in the harder matchups that makes it a bit more natural that their winrates are also a bit lower.
If we look at the faction we played into we get the chart below:
The surprises for me here are Grymkin, Skorne, Khador and Legion. For Grymkin I dont find that we have such a bad matchup that the winrate should be that bad for 20 games played. Skorne I expected us to have a bit of a harder time with, but the low droprate might indicate we dodged the rough ones (looking at Rashet 😉 ) while playing more into exalted and Makeda3 which should be good for us. Khador I find to be a pretty good game for us and dont see a reason for a 2-7 winrate, and Legions famous weakness into shooting can definatley not be seen here. Menoth and cryx are also positives which is in sync with my feelings on the matchups (even if I would have expected it even a bit higher than shown).
To see a bit more what was actually played I also made a chart of our most common opposing caster (I only included caster that was played into CG at least 3 times)
Here we can see that we actually played a fair number of mirrors, with Gearhart taking a beating from Syvestro. Child1 and dreamer stats basically show the Grymkin stats from above. Standout is a 100% winrate vs Makeda3 (my experience is that she really doesnt like purification so guessing Syvestro handled that). We also have a 0% winrate vs Baldur1 (its bad but not that bad, I contributed with losing a listchicken into him though), Issyria (one of our biggest problems IMO) and Anamag (What happened here!?). The negative winrate into harbinger is a bit surprising but its not too extreme.
With the above data I got a bit interested in how often CG was actually dropped into the different factions. Skorne for example was very popular but we have few games into them so I made the below chart for our droprate into different factions:
The line here represent our average droprate (5,78%, basically how big part of WTC was crucible guard) so anything above the line means we were dropped into it more often than expected and below means less often than expected (given the number of players of that faction). For CoC and trollbloods the percentages are probbably not too reliable since the low number of players for both us and them might mean that teams with the factions didnt even face off. It is also hard to say if the high and low numbers is indications of what we want to dodge or what the opponent wants to dodge. I think my takeaway in general is that the factions with high numbers are generally the matchups where both we and our opponents feel (or felt) that we have an even game while the low numbers is a combination of dodges from both sides. I would expect this to be more evident in the most popular factions since CG is still a bit of an unknown in many ways. I would guess Cryx has been dodging us, skorne a mix depedning on their pair while we have been dodging Circle and Ret. However combining this with the above chart of winrates it seems like our dodge tactic as a faction was really bad since we have the most games played into the faction where our winrate is lowest (Grymkin, Legion, Khador and Cygnar).
That is it for now for matchup data. Now Im interested to see what was the reasons for our wins and losses! So our winrate and lossrate by type can be seen below:
In general we can see that its not too big of a difference (I will need to analyse the other factions to see if this is all similar or if we stand out in some way). In general we lose a bit more often on scenario than we win on it.
How is all of this divided over the different scenarios then?:
It seems like central flags are not our things ;). The slowest scenario in the pack is the only place where we break above 50%, indicating to me that we focus on attrition, or possibly that we play better grouped up (our 3 best scenarios are the ones where you dont have to spread out as much). The winrate on Anarchy is almost disturbingly low. I know personally I was missing units to score circles with but I had the feeling the most CG players had a higher number of units than me so Im not really sure what happened here.
The last part I think is better presented as a table than a chart:
The wins was already presented in % above but the other numbers I find interesting. CP Diff and AP Diff is presented as CG players Score minus their opponents score. (So a player ending a game at 3-5 CP and 90-80 AP gives -2 CP diff and +10 AP Diff)
Bunkers had the highest number of Controlpoints scored (4.5 per CG player overall) but we were still behind our opponents. Invasion and Recon are the two scenarios were we scored more CP than our opponents.
For AP it seems like we took a big attrition beating in general in game one on King of The Hill, and again Invasion and Recond stand out as the positives. Spread the net has a very low killrate compared to the other scenarios (a lot of scoring points so easier to get the points without killing too much?).
Overall with out winrate it is not too surprising that we end up negative in both CP Diff and AP Diff.
This last part is also a place where I will enjoy comparing the different factions and can draw a few more conclusions when I have all the stats compiled.
I hope you enjoyed some stats! Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions!
wmhnorrland 